Transitioning to Hydrogen? A Long-Term Study of the Policy Process

The idea of an economy relying on hydrogen as its main energy carrier has grown since its inception, from little more than a scientific hypothesis to a tangible possibility for a relatively near future. The series of necessary technological advances that could position hydrogen as a viable alternative to competitors based on fossil fuels is nearing completion. Whether and when the last desirable technological breakthroughs will happen is still uncertain, but their increasing likelihood has been drawing correspondingly increasing interest from within the energy policy subsystem.

The overarching goal of this study is to understand and facilitate the dynamics of policy change that relates to hydrogen as an energy carrier.  Researchers will follow three interrelated research avenues: a study of the policy dynamics, a refinement of existing policy theory, and the creation of a policy resource center for parties interested in hydrogen policy.  An embedded objective of the project is to create a permanent hydrogen policy forum.  Data are collected via an online survey including questions on all aspects of hydrogen policy.  Due to the dynamic nature of the policy process, these factors are likely to vary over time.  As a result, the project aims to measure factors at regular intervals to determine the evolution of key factors and the relationships between these changes and policy outcomes. 

Publications from this project:

Collantes, Gustavo "Incorporating stakeholders’ perspectives into models of new technology diffusion: The case of fuel-cell vehicles," Journal of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, In Press.

Collantes, Gustavo O. (2005) Foreseeing the Market for Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicles: Stakeholders' Perspectives and Models of New Technology Diffusion. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-05-27

Collantes, Gustavo O. (2005) Stakeholders' Perspectives on Hydrogen Policy: A Factor Analysis. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-05-22

Collantes, Gustavo O. (2005) The Hydrogen Policy Survey: Descriptive Statistics of the Study Sample and Their Policy Perspectives. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-05-21

Collantes, Gustavo, "An Expert-Empirical Model to Evaluate Technology Policy: The Case of Hydrogen Hybrid Electric Vehicles," Proceeding of the Hypothesis VI International Symposium, La Havana, Cuba, May 2005.

Presentations from this project:

Collantes, Gustavo, "Hydrogen as a Transportation Fuel: Technology and Policy," World Bank Transportation Group, Washington, D.C., November 2005.

Collantes, Gustavo, "Hydrogen Policy and Stakeholders’ Beliefs," Fall Conference of the Association of Public Policy Analysis and Management, Washington, D.C., November 2005.

Collantes, Gustavo, "An Expert-Empirical Model to Evaluate Technology Policy: The Case of Hydrogen Hybrid Electric Vehicles," Hypothesis VI International Symposium, La Havana, Cuba, May 8 - 12, 2005.

Research Faculty: Paul A. Sabatier, Joan Ogden, Daniel Sperling
Graduate Student Researcher: Gustavo Collantes
Research Staff: Anthony Eggert
Funding: Hydrogen Pathways Program