Hydrogen Cost Uncertainty Model

This project aims at looking into the uncertainties surrounding hydrogen infrastructure cost estimates found in the literature. The question is if these uncertainties can be represented in a consistent manner using cost uncertainty analysis methods (i.e., cost estimation and Monte Carlo methods). In the project we are compiling cost estimates from the literature and subject them to uncertainty analysis methods, resulting in cost probability distributions for a limited number of pathways. We are also incorporating learning effects as an uncertain variable, allowing for time series estimates. This will represent the levelized cost of hydrogen ($/kg) as a probability distribution based upon uncertainty analysis of major cost elements (capital costs, variable costs, indirect costs, utilization rates, capital recovery factors, etc.)

Research Faculty: Marc W. Melaina
Funding: Hydrogen Pathways Program